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Today’s the big day for Venezuela. If all runs smooth, results will be out this evening, and they’ll have a new National Assembly.
It’s a face-off between the United Socialist Party of Nicolás Maduro, successor to the flamboyant Hugo Chavez; and a broad-based opposition alliance, the Democratic Unity Roundtable.
Ten days ago, a regional opposition leader, Luis Manuel Diaz was shot dead at a political rally. Another leading oppositionist, Lilian Tintori was spattered with his blood. Her husband has been in prison since early last year.
That same week, there was a fire on the private plane the Tintori team uses for political travel. Said Lilian: “That aircraft was tampered with by the regime and I am not scared to say it.”
Things don’t look too nice.
Last month, Luis Almagro Lemes, secretary-general of the Organisation of American States and a former foreign minister in Uruguay’s left-wing government wrote a detailed letter criticising election arrangements.
Maduro called him “garbage.” He had said in August: “Venezuela…will not be monitored by anyone.” Brazil has pulled out from a very limited election observer mission organised by Unasur, the Union of South American Nations.
Opinion polls give a massive lead to the Opposition. One pollster last Tuesday put them 19 points ahead. Astonishingly, that was seen as a plus for Maduro; other polls project a 35-point opposition lead.
But the voting system tilts heavily to Maduro. Last time round, in 2010, the Chavistas were just two points ahead in the popular vote—but that gave them a landslide majority in the Assembly.
Changes in April were crafted to give the Government a further boost. Conceivably, they could trail in the popular vote, but still come first on the seat count.
On the plus side, Venezuela does still hold elections. The Chavistas have won them all, invincible since 1998. But this time, their campaign song “Invencible” sounds a little shaky.
Food prices have doubled this year—and that’s for those lucky enough to reach the checkout. One in five Venezuelans tell pollsters they have stood in line for more than ten hours that week, just to lay hands on essential groceries.
Plunging oil prices since mid-2014 have pushed an already troubled economy into free fall.
Whatever today’s result, Maduro will still be president.
If he loses his National Assembly majority, he’ll be like Obama, or like Guyana’s Donald Ramotar last year—in office, but unable to pass a budget without support from truculent and angry opponents.
Indeed, he will be in a worse trap. Venezuela’s constitution allows the Assembly to force the president to fight for his political life in a recall referendum.
If the Opposition win two-thirds of the seats, they’ll have extra games to play. They will be able to dump the regime’s hand-picked Supreme Court judges.
Trouble could start earlier. Maduro has threatened to take to the streets if he loses today’s election.
Election officials say results will be announced only when they are “irreversible.” A long wait past the normal time this evening would be a danger signal.
Former opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles talks of “a bomb ready to explode.”
I can see Venezuela from my neighbour’s balcony. Psychologically, they might be a thousand miles off. But if that bomb explodes, then we too are in for trouble.
The other one next week is St Vincent, where they vote on Wednesday. Ralph Gonsalves has been in power since 2001. He is no Maduro, but he’s a cheerleader for the PetroCaribe fan club.
Five years ago, he scraped back for a third term with a two per cent lead and eight seats, to seven for his opponent Arnhim Eustace. All hinges on an uncompleted international airport, now four years behind schedule and way over budget.
The Government promises intercontinental flights early next year. The Opposition say the airport won’t be ready until 2020, and claim massive design flaws. The economy, meanwhile, is badly adrift.
Now 69, Ralph must be thinking retirement plans. His son Camillo is a government-appointed senator and St Vincent’s foreign minister. He is fighting for election to the lower house on Wednesday. His next job? In the words of an opposition campaign song: “Ask Ralph.”