A Central Bank report about two per cent negative growth in the T&T for the year so far should come as no surprise, says Anya Schnoor, managing director of Scotiabank T&T Ltd.
Schnoor, vice-president/director of the Banker’s Association of T&T (BATT), said with the decline in revenue from oil and gas prices worldwide and this country’s reliance on those two major sources for wealth, it was logical that revenue declined over that period. However, despite that bleak economic forecast, she said T&T is not in a recession.
She explained that based on established definitions an economy has to experience two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth to be in a recession. However, she said, citizens must take stock of where the country is and understand that Finance Minister Colm Imbert had a very important budget to present on Monday.
Schnoor is optimistic the minister will offer the clearest description of the country’s fiscal situation, outline what has to be done and rally the population to co-operate with some of the crucial changes to be made for T&T’s economic recovery.
“The great thing about Trinidad and Tobago’s financial situation and fiscal situation is that there’s lots of room to do many different things,” she said. “Trinidad and Tobago is not by any means in a crisis situation, so I think the government has a unique opportunity to put credible programmes on the table to get us through what hopefully will be not an extended period of reduced oil prices, but a period of time where the world is going through global change.
“We are seeing what’s happening in China. We are seeing what’s happing in Europe, so we have to figure out how we manage through external shocks that are not necessarily of T&T’s making.”
Schnoor said she hoped that coming out of the new budget there will a discussion about the current situation and the things that need to be done differently.
“I think there has to be a recognition that some things will have to change, and the mix of policies is going to be very, very important. This is a big budget at a very important time and BATT is looking forward to working with the new Minister of Finance to see how we in the banking system can play an important role in the continued development of the economy.”
She said even before the change in government, BATT was often asked to provide input and policies of interest to the financial sector. Dialogue with the ministry, she said, was a general rule and the association has already indicated to Imbert its willingness to meet in consultation, working together at a very important time in the country’s history.
On the issue of diversification, Schnoor is eager for it to become reality, since discussions on the topic are not new.
She said: “We obviously have expertise in the oil and gas industry, in the services sector, in various parts of the industry along the food chain. Trinidad and Tobago can play a very important role in not just the exploration and the actual front end part of the oil industry, but also providing services and I think we need a conversation with all the players, whether it’s the unions, the private sector, to figure out how do we become even more competitive in those particular industries, so that we can export the tremendous brain power that we have built up over a 100 years, being in the industry.
“There are various elements in which Trinidad and Tobago has built up great expertise. What we need is a conversation among the public sector, private sector, civil society about where it is that we want to focus our resources and where do we think we can have a competitive advantage.