Mystic Blaze represents a serious bet for the seven-runner Maiden Stakes over seven furlongs of Southwell fibresand today, according to official BHA ratings!
That’s good enough for most punters, it certainly influences yours truly; mine is to compute race-times accurately and produce my time-handicap with a view to ‘waging war’ on bookmakers. That’s been the way for more than 40 years but these are difficult ‘times’, for want of an ironic explanation.
As previously mentioned, times taken for NH races are akin to a joke and mean it’s pointless computing them; you would never believe just how innacurate they are country-wide and yet in the 1970’s I’d travel the length and breadth of this great country with a reliable stop watch to effect accurate information for newspapers and form publications.
Nowadays all jumping races should be timed electrically, as is the case for ALL flat races; however it’s worse than ever because, over jumps, starters sometime bring down their flags when runners are at least 60 yards from the starting gate. The BHA doesn’t care.
Unfortunately there are too many meetings nowadays to take race-times everywhere and so the winter sport is all about a guessing game; that’s the reason why my focus is on all-weather racing. Unfortunately that’s difficult with factors like, differing surfaces, the draw, going round tight bends and, after last weekend, crooked races!*
There appeared to be a glaring case a few days ago and yet, many years ago, a boss of Ladbrokes was pilloried for suggesting there were several every week. Money talks, it certainly spoke volumes at Chelmsford. A shameful state of affairs.
Mystic Blaze hasn’t been out since having his ‘third run’ 76 days ago but he’s trained by Andrew Balding; no thoroughbred leaves Kingsclere stables short of fitness and we expect Oisin Murphy to ride this Arcano colt positively, and win! As for non-triers in maidens, don’t think they aren’t prevalent!
Few trainers like to win ‘first-up’ and so many others run their charges three times with a view to getting a low handicap mark; we know who ‘they’ are but it’s not a satisfactory system by any means and such practices also involve ‘second guessing!’ Rely on JR, he knows how to negotiate the ‘minefields’ and win, in the long run!
As an aside, 24-year-old jockey, Darren Egan, a one-time leading apprentice, was banned for 12 years on Monday for stopping horses to facilitate the laying businesses of gambler Philip Langford; he ‘risked’ the sum of 838, 870 pounds on Egan’s rides, making 53,560 pounds on Betfair and Betdaq betting exchanges!
Selections:
11.20 Mystic Blaze
2.25 Logarithm
3.25 Justice First