Hermitage Bay first, the rest, nowhere!
That is my obvious conclusion after analysing the ten-runner Maiden Stakes over a mile of Southwell fibresand today, when a seven-race all-weather programme runs in tandem with Taunton jumps fixture; Lingfield, like Ayr yesterday, was abandoned Sunday due to waterlogging.
It’s a well-documented, boring, subject but rains continue to saturate the United Kingdom and that ‘good to soft’ ground optimistically forecast for Doncaster last Saturday, was way off the mark; “very soft” was the opinion of a leading National Hunt jockey but the executive, and ground staff, of Town Moor tried hard and achieved plenty to stage a two-day(s) meeting.
It is proving a disastrous winter campaign for NH followers but the sport at Cheltenham was tremendous; drainage on Prestbury Park is extremely effective, several million pounds was invested a few years ago and come the ‘Festival’ six weeks tomorrow some of those supposed hot-pots may well be turned over.
For instance all the Willie Mullins-trained winners have been on ‘heavy’ Irish ground, by March 15th it could ride fast and has happened before!
Smad Place will run in the Gold Cup on the back of his all-the-way victories in the ‘Hennessy’ (napped @ 7/1) and last Saturday, when grinding clear again with a stamina surge; Alan King’s charge will be ‘on the premises’ and a popular each-way fancy but ‘King George’ winner, Cue Card, is our current ‘number one’ and likely to remain so.
The time-handicap is our guide.
Eight weeks ago Hermitage Bay was backed into favouritism for his much-awaited debut on Kempton polytrack, despite being drawn nine of ten!
Hermitage Bay wasn’t able to overcome the disadvantages but was third, beaten three lengths, in a fast-run race; a replication should be good enough and improvement will surely be forthcoming. Of course it all depends on being able to cope with the ‘deep stuff!’
We’re also posting selections for the daily patent but neither measures up to Hermitage Bay and if there are any jumping tips I’ll post on dailyearner.co.uk.
Selections:
10.30 Spowarticus;
11.30 Hermitage Bay (nap); 12.00 Berkshire Beauty.